"10-Year Treasury Yield Plays It Cool, Still 22 Basis Points Too Cool for School"

The US 10-year Treasury yield is looking like the laid-back kid in class, trading near a fair value estimate and only 22 basis points above where it should be. This is a significant shift from the previous sharp rise in the market premium during 2022-2024, when everyone was freaking out about interest rates. According to James Picerno, director of analytics at The Milwaukee Co., the current estimate is based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com, which is basically the Treasury yield's report card. The recent update shows that the 10-year yield is still trading at a relatively neutral level, which is either a sign of stability or a indication that the market is just really good at playing it cool. With the Fed keeping a close eye on inflation and the economy, the Treasury yield's fair value estimate is like the market's way of saying "yeah, I'm good" - but we all know that can change in an instant.